External Monitoring of Coercive Agents and the Murders of Journalists: A Cross-National Study of Journalist Killings, 1992-2019

Targeted attacks on journalists are internationally condemned crimes which do not only undermine freedom of expression but also symbolise an utter disregard for basic human rights. Yet, murders of journalists occur in all types of regimes, whether autocratic or democratic. The elements that lead to a hostile environment for journalists received little attention from scholars of quantitative political science. This paper explores the conditions that cause journalists to be the target of deadly attacks by state officials and unknown perpetrators. The typology of monitoring of coercive agents is essential for this study to distinguish between private and public information available within a political regime. External monitors, which share the information they gather with the public and hold the coercive agents accountable, are crucial for a safe working environment for journalists. Utilising quantitative data provided by Committee to Protect Journalists, Varieties of Democracy Dataset Version 9, and the Polity IV Project, this study investigates the factors that underlie murders of journalists between 1992 and 2019. The results of the multivariate analysis demonstrate that three main indicators of external monitoring, (1) robustness of civil society, (2) independence of media, and (3) strength of the judiciary are all associated with the occurrence of murders of journalists in a country. While a robust civil society and a strong judiciary decreases the probability of journalists being murdered by state officials and unknown perpetrators, a more critical and independent media structure appears to be associated with a higher probability of murders of journalists. The risks of such murders are especially higher for scenarios where the critical media outlets are abundant but civil society and the judiciary is particularly weak and ineffective. The findings imply that a robust civil society and a strong judiciary are essential elements for the freedom of expression to be exercised safely by the members of the media.