Rapid Subsystem Emergence: When Policy Change Shapes Coalitions

Traditional Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) scholarship recognizes the stability of coalitions over longer periods of time, yet sometimes external events force rapid development of coalitions, especially when policy change is imminent and required. This is not a case of external shock within an existing subsystem, but rather the creation of a new – usually highly conflictual – issue area in which coalitions and their associated beliefs did not previously exist. An example is the policy response to COVID-19 in the United States. As scholars and practitioners, we need to know more about these situations because when they happen, they are significant. However, little research exists that tracks the emergence of a new subsystem, particularly when circumstances demand policy change and there is immediate conflict between evolving coalitions. This paper studies a four-year period before and after the 2020 landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision in McGirt v. Oklahoma. In McGirt v. Oklahoma, the US Supreme Court determined that the reservation of the Muscogee Nation was never properly dissolved by the US Congress and thereby implicitly returned criminal and other jurisdiction back to the tribal nation. Much of eastern Oklahoma would be impacted, including the city of Tulsa. Suddenly, substantial questions of jurisdiction had to be answered, and not just criminal. While allocation of property rights and mineral rights was never under question in the case, regulation of mineral extraction is now highly uncertain. This research uses a variety of text documents, such as amicus and policy briefs and news media, to map an emergent subsystem in Oklahoma. Our aim is to learn more about: When coalitions have to be gathered rapidly, how do policy actors convey their beliefs and establish relationships? We form our expectations based on past work in psychology and political behavior implying that actors turn to cognitive shortcuts and heuristics to form their belief systems in the absence of existing value signals. This paper advances ACF theory on subsystem emergence and belief systems and contributes methodologically to the field through the novel application of coding scheme that has been used in several other cases in recent years. For practitioners, this paper uncovers much of the beliefs driving policymaking in this particular case and lends insight into how policy actors react to novel, significant events.