The imperfect elasticity of global governance: IGO crisis responses between expansion and contraction

We start from the observation that transboundary crises repeatedly lead to the strengthening of some IGOs while weakening others, at least temporarily. This variance is puzzling for extant theorizations that show an almost binary division in theoretical expectations of crisis-induced empowerment or disempowerment of IGOs, without accounting for the other outcome, respectively. We develop a theoretical argument to account for variation both across and within IGOs over time. At the macro-level, we posit that global governance arrangements exhibit elasticity: while some IGOs in a given governance space contract due to crisis pressures, this opens the way for others to expand. When the crisis abates, however, the weakened organizations reemerge and the strengthened ones retract, albeit imperfectly so. At the micro-level, we explain which IGOs are likely to initially contract or expand and why. We argue that IGO focality and crisis intensity are the main factors mediating crisis pressures from contentious politicization. When crisis intensity is high and an IGO is focal, we expect its contraction: It will be at the center of attention and attract contradictory demands and blame that hinder a collaborative and assertive response. A non-focal IGO will be less affected by such restrictions. Flying under the radar of public attention, such IGOs find themselves able to at least temporarily expand into policy areas left ungoverned by focal IGOs. When crisis intensity decreases, we expect focal IGOs to reclaim their sphere of authority and non-focal IGOs to fall back into their core business, both leaving institutional traces, however, that preempt a complete return to the status quo ante. To test the plausibility of this mechanistic argument, we apply it to the case of IGO reactions to the COVID-19 crisis. We study the mechanisms of expansion and contraction in four global and regional, focal and non-focal IGOs: WHO, EU, WFP and NATO.