Political Stability in Portugal during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Looking Beyond the Miracle

The available literature that has analyzed the Portuguese politics during the past decade of crisis described the country as the exceptional case in Southern Europe (De Giorgi and Santana-Pereira 2020; Moury and De Giorgi 2015; Tsatsanis et al. 2014; Freire et. al. 2014). The scholarly works’ main conclusions highlighted the continuity and the resilience of the Portuguese political system under the impact of the post-2008 crisis. Thus, Portugal becomes an interesting case study regarding the implications of the Covid-19 crisis. While moving the analysis of the Portuguese case beyond the discussion about its exceptionalism (Silva et. al. 2021; De Giorgi and Santana-Pereira 2020), the research question of this paper is the following: What drivers may explain the high levels of Portuguese political stability during the Covid-19 pandemic? To this end, one will use a qualitative-interpretative methodology based on the analysis of the most important social and political events occurred between 2nd March of 2020 – i.e., the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in Portugal – and 30th January 2022 – i.e., the day of the early legislative elections. Such analysis of the events, which unfolded during almost two years of Covid-19, will be organized into the two main group indicators of political stability, drawn from the Ersson and Erik-Lane’s work (1983): the social and the political indicators. Among the social indicators will feature the presence/absence and number of a) protest demonstrations; b) riots; c) armed attacks; and e) political strikes and f) citizens’ trust. Among the political indicators will feature the presence/absence and the number of a) executive renewals, adjustments or transfers; b) number of governments; c) volatility and d) governmental change. Drawing on the works of Tsurutani (1968), Lipset (1960) and Lijphart (1968: 8), three other indicators will be added, namely the absence/presence of major political movements opposed to the democratic rules of the game; the existence of a viable consensus; and the system’s ability to survive intact. The research expectations are twofold. On the political side, it is expected a validation of the general political consensus that has dominated the Portuguese politics in the last decade or so. On the social side, it is expected to confirm low levels of social disorder identified by previous studies (Magalhães 2005: 988). The research findings will allow one to scrutinize both the political and social factors which helps to explain the Portuguese political stability during the hard times of Covid-19 pandemic. This study’s main conclusions will be important to move the discussion about the Portuguese case not only beyond the notion of exceptionalism or miracle, but also beyond the analyses exclusively focused on the party arena and political system, by highlighting the impact of the pandemic both on political and social arena.