Strategies for Controlling Territory and Populations in the Aftermath of Separatist Wars: A Conceptual Framework

This paper proposes a conceptual framework for identifying and categorising strategies for controlling territory and populations in the aftermath of separatist wars. I argue that research on post-war environments should extend its focus beyond peacebuilding and spoiling activities and frameworks based on positive/negative peace and recognition/counter-recognition to include investigations of the strategies used by conflict actors to shape de facto territorial and demographic control – that is, how they create ‘facts on the ground’. To that end, I present a conceptual framework of control strategies used by states, separatists and other conflict actors that aims to more fully capture their range of post-war activities and to provide a conceptual toolkit necessary for theory development and empirical research on the aftermath of separatist wars and the formation and trajectory of post-war environments. Drawing on civil war research and the central importance of de facto control in armed conflict, my framework uses the core characteristics of territorial and demographic control as a basis to conceptualise and operationalise four categories of control strategies: territorial access and denial, territorial presence and absence, population location and composition, and population loyalty and compliance. I then apply this framework to the context of post-war environments and illustrate its value in making sense of what conflict actors do in the aftermath of separatist wars. To support the validity of the framework, I draw on comparative evidence from a wide range of separatist conflicts focusing primarily on the Caucasus, the Balkans, and eastern Europe. I conclude with suggestions for how to develop a full explanatory theory that must link strategy selection to actors’ objectives and the constraints and opportunities of the post-war environment.