It's Trade, Stupid! How Changes in Subnational Trade Competitiveness Matter for Incumbents' Vote Shares

The consequences of globalization for electoral outcomes have recently become a prominent topic of research. We complement the emerging literature on this topic by studying whether a decline (an improvement) in the economic competitiveness of a region leads to a decrease (increase) in the incumbent's vote share in that region. Using a novel dataset that measures subnational trade competitiveness in 30 countries over a twenty year period, we show that this is indeed the case. We also show, however, that this effect is most pronounced in presidential systems. In doing so, the paper not only speaks to research on the consequences of globalization, but also to the broader economic voting literature.