Presidential popularity and regime type: a comparative analysis

Traditionally, patterns of presidential popularity (approval) have mainly been studied in the context of classical presidential regimes such as the U.S. and Latin American countries, and we therefore lack systematic empirical research on presidential popularity in other regime types. This paper addresses the gap by comparing presidential popularity in European semi-presidential regimes and presidential (and possibly parliamentary) regimes in the 21st century. Utilizing national public opinion surveys and relevant contextual data, it examines whether the level of presidential popularity varies between the regime types and if it does, could the strength of the presidency explain some of the variation. Overall, presidents are usually more popular than other politicians, and in the context of semi-presidential regimes, this might be explained by their limited constitutional powers and role above party politics. In presidential regimes, on the other hand, presidents usually possess quite considerable powers and the public might be more judgmental towards the presidents’ actions. This paper thus assumes that higher level of presidential popularity is connected to more moderate role of the president. In addition, popularity ratings should be more unstable when the president is the main political leader of the country. The paper also discusses different measures of presidential popularity since the questions and frequency of the surveys vary across countries.