“You can’t out-compete the sun”: how the political economy shapes the Jordanian energy transition

Countries around the world have pledged to transition to low-carbon energy systems, but face barriers in escaping carbon lock-in. National political economy plays a key role here, especially in contexts where governments have high financial stakes in fossil-intensive energy systems. In some states where the clean energy industry is gaining ground, authors have suggested that new political coalitions can emerge and push for decarbonization. In Jordan, a significant renewable energy industry born out of a set of policies to increase energy security has become active in pushing for policy change. Their interests are opposed by the state and state-owned distribution companies, who argue that the Jordanian energy system cannot integrate more clean energy. This paper outlines the political economy of Jordanian renewable energy, exploring potential pathways for energy systems change based on a series of stakeholder interviews and qualitative scenarios. It finds that there is no silver bullet; but that a combination of regional cooperation and shifts in decision-making structures could accelerate decarbonization.