"This is the bet": frames, strategies and theories of change in climate justice action

The explosion of youth climate protest since 2018 has sparked a renewed interest on the issue of climate-centred collective action. What has been happening in the last four years, with massive numbers of young people showing their concern and engagement with the issue of climate change in different venues, including the streets and squares of several countries around the world, has little precedent in history. Such a significant and widespread movement, of international characteristics, with a specific generational characterisation and a clear focus on the issue of climate change, represents an exceptional and exciting case for scholars interested in collective action. This movement was not born out of nothing; rather, it is rooted in a long trajectory of mobilisation. Research has been focusing for a long time on the emergence of the "climate justice" frame within this trajectory as a way out of post-political understanding of climate action. Furthermore, research has been pointing out internal tensions on the "radical" vs. "reformist" axis. Still, recent cases of climate action such as FFF and XR seem to call for a deeper analysis: while the climate justice framework is ubiquitous, internal tensions within the movement are far from over. This paper aims at addressing this issue focusing on the strategic choices of movement actors, and in particular on the ideational component of strategy, trying to shed light on the "theories of change", i.e. the meta-strategic visions/logics on which actors base their strategic choices, in the context of climate action. The paper draws on qualitative interviews of FFF and XR activists in Italy and Belgium and on the analysis of social media material.