Criminal (Dis)Organization and Firearm violence

Firearm violence, especially of the lethal kind, in countries known as hotbeds for firearm violence by Organized Criminal Groups (OGCs), such as Estonia and Italy, peaked in the 1990s but has since then declined impressively. We note the reverse in countries such as Sweden and the Netherlands. Building on the research findings of Project TARGET, we isolate two factors to account for this evolution, namely criminal (dis)organization and access to (illegal) firearms. Criminal (dis)organization. OGCs can exert differing levels of control over firearm possession and use. While in some countries OGCs decided upon that firearm violence attracts unwanted attention and adversely effects their core businesses, in other countries OGCs emerged that view firearm possession and violence as a currency for power and respect. The latter exert control over firearm use. Firearm availability. Firearm availability means the (illegal) availability of firearms. We note that the availability of military-grade or quality firearms can – if combined with criminal disorganization – cause an epidemic of firearm violence. These firearms are not always available to (all) criminals in certain countries. These two elements will be discussed in the context of firearm violence in Sweden, Italy, Estonia and Denmark. We note high levels of criminal firearm violence in Sweden, while firearm violence in Italy and Estonia is today connected more to domestic and other disputes. In Denmark, we note significant levels of young, disorganized criminal groups that, however, do not (yet) seem to have access to quality firearms.