Russian Strategic Narratives Against Ukraine and the West and Political Anticipation of Possible Hybrid War by Russia

The purpose of this paper is to examine Russia's strategic narratives in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine in order to anticipate possible consequences and also future Russian information attacks against Ukraine and the Western world, and its institutions (EU, NATO, etc.). I will focus on Russian strategic narratives disseminated by Russia in 2014-2022 against Ukraine and the West. As Caillol (2012) correctly noted political anticipation (PA) is a method of improving the ability to understand trends and predict events in order to influence events on a large or small scale. Thus, conceived as an effective and immediate tool, PA is a decision-making tool for all types of decision makers. Given the dynamics of today's reality, every decision looks like a bet on the future and this is linked to the desire to get the best possible result for the risk taken and also the effort expended. Political anticipation as a method can help to address effectively (if not prevent) possible emerging issues and conflicts and challenges in our contemporary globalized world. This method can help to better understand what the consequences of Russian information influence might be and what Russian information activity will look like in the future. Influencing activities can be considered a type of military activity, which Russia has used extensively in war in Ukraine and even before. The large-scaled war launched against the Ukraine 2022 is a consequence of the escalation of long-term Russian hybrid warfare and information influence. To justify the war against Ukraine and Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine, Kremlin continues to use narratives which are based on Russia’s opposition to Ukraine and the West. One of the tools of influence are strategic narratives (stories disseminated to the public that are used by actors as a means of shaping the common past, present, and future of international politics to shape the perceptions and behavior of domestic and also international actors – Miskimmon 2013; Roselle 2014). Caillol, M.-H. 2012. Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes, International Journal of General Systems 41:1, 77-90 Miskimmon, et al. 2013. Strategic Narratives: Communication Power and the New World Order. Routledge Miskimmon, A.; O’Loughlin, B.; Roselle, L. (eds.). 2018. Forging the World. Strategic Narratives and International Relations. Ann Arbor. Mölder, H. 2016. The War of Narratives – Putin’s Challenge to International Security Governance in Ukraine.Sõjateadlane 2, 88−113. Mölder, H.; Sazonov, V. 2019. The Impact of Russian Anti-Western Conspiracy Theories on the Status-related Conflict in Ukraine: The Case of Flight MH17. – BJES Vol. 9 (3), 96−115. Roselle, et al. 2014. Strategic narrative: A new means to understand soft power. Media, War & Conflict 2014 7(1), 70–84 Written with support (O-006) "Strategic communication in the context of the war in Ukraine: lessons learned for Estonia", Estonian Military Academy