Individual-Level Trajectories of Affective Polarization

Affective polarization is a feature of most party systems. Most work focuses on why some people display higher levels of affective polarization than others, or the conditions under which some polities display higher levels of affective polarization. However, little is known about the process by which some people reach different levels of affective polarization over time. Quantifying different temporal trajectories of affective polarization in a given population can tell us much about how stable partisan affect is (and ultimately who manipulations to reduce affective polarization can sway), and also indicate not only which factors affect levels of affective polarization, but also its volatility over time. In this paper, we leverage a large, nationally representative panel of British citizens over a dozen waves from 2014 to 2023 to answer these questions. We use latent class growth curve modeling (LCGCM), an inductive, person-oriented approach, to identify individual-level trajectories in affective polarization over time. We then examine the extent to which demographic factors (age, gender, education) and political factors (ideological extremity, political engagement) explain why people follow different polarization trajectories. Finally, we examine how different trajectory groups differ in their patterns of political engagement, political participation, and satisfaction with democracy over time.