The use of big data in the process of hardening autocracy

With the development of the Internet and its spread worldwide, authoritarian regimes are faced with the need to respond to a new tool that can be used to mobilize dissenters and coordinate their actions. The range of possible reaction strategies ranges from a direct block of unfavorable information to a more subtle method of shaping public opinion, such as using astroturfing campaigns and slowing down traffic. In recent years, the Internet has been the most important channel for the dissemination of political information in Russia, successfully competing with television that overwhelmingly promotes the Kremlin agenda. The Russian government perceives the Internet as a mobilization mechanism against the regime by its opponents, and thus as a potential threat because it provides an independent perspective on what is going on in the country. At the same time, Russian authorities have taken into account the complexity of the media environment and implemented different strategies to deal with dissent online. The aim of the paper is to track the changes in how the Russian regime uses big data instruments in political communication and assess how it affects its legitimacy. The paper’s main argument is that Russian authorities understand the necessity of being reachable and providing communication with citizens even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which led to a significant hardening of the regime in terms of tolerance for dissent. I show the regime's evolution while taking into consideration the stresses it has faced in the last 10 years. Special attention is paid to such monitoring and communication systems as Incident Management, Centers of Regional Governance responsible for providing citizens the voice option in terms of Albert Hirschman. I show how these new big data instruments also help solve one of the autocrat’s dilemmas - keeping lower levels of governance accountable to the principal because of their direct control by the Administration of the Russian President. Then, I reflect on the broader implications of the use of big data in communication by the Russian regime in terms of possible policy diffusion to other autocracies and so-called “defective democracies,” which are driving in the direction of more autocratic practices.