Defeating Populism: The Return to Power of Lula da Silva in Brazil

A wave of right-wing populist leaders and parties have risen to power in many countries over the last decades. More often than not, these political groups openly defend authoritarian positions and work to perpetuate their grip over power. Success varies. This paper explores a case of failure or relative failure. Jair Bolsonaro lost the closest race to the Presidency in recent years. He was defeated by former President Lula da Silva, in one of the most iconic comebacks in Brazilian history. What was the rhetoric and campaign strategy used to electorally defeat a populist in power? What factors influenced voting behavior and lead voters to support the opposition? This paper argues that a general defense of liberal democracy, against the democratic backsliding proposed by Bolsonaro in power, and a defense of science against the negationism of the incumbent in facing the COVID-19 pandemic were central elements of this narrative. Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic positions and his management of the pandemic lead some supporters to defect, enough to remove him from power. On the other hand, what were Bolsonaro’s strategies to avoid defeat? What rhetoric do populists in power employ to win elections? How do they react once defeated in the ballots? We show here that Bolsonaro benefited from the political polarization in the country, making it impossible for a viable “third way” to emerge in the country and from social and economic measures that improved living conditions in the electoral year. Bolsonaro was able to regain support from sectors he had lost based on the economic well-being of the population and the absence of alternatives in the right. But this proved insufficient to assure reelection. The aftermath of the defeat were marked by the most violent political protests in the country, showing significant popular support for Bolsonaro’s authoritarian solutions.