An era of permissive dissensus? A comparative reappraisal of individual-level determinants of political support for the EU in the polycrisis age

Postfunctionalist arguments emphasizing the conflict between exclusive national identity and supranational integration still feature prominently in contemporary scholarly debates on political support for the EU. While it is relatively undisputed that domestic politicisation of EU issues has contributed to some anti-EU contestation, recent evidence suggests that diffuse political support for EU membership is still remarkably high and in an increasing trajectory since the Great Recession. Domestically, this upward trend in public support for the EU is at odds with remarkably stable levels of exclusive national identity (and very low levels of European identification), putting into question the validity of identity-based arguments. Internationally, a series of exogenous crises affecting the collective of EU member-states has seen Europeans relying more on the supranational polity to find common - European - solutions to face common threats. Publics demanded a more active EU role in the provision of solidaristic instruments to insure against adversity, and that was met with an expansion in the EU policy portfolio, particularly in the realm of fiscal solidarity. It is against this background that I argue for a revisitation of extant mainstream scholarship on the drivers of diffuse political support for the EU. I contend that, instead of being grounded on cultural explanations highlighting nationalism and cosmopolitanism, EU political support during the polycrisis age has rather consolidated on the shoulders of the various external shocks affecting Europe, mainly in search for increased economic prosperity and national security. To appraise the issues driving contemporary political support for the EU, this paper provides a comparative assessment of its main predictors building on an original large-N survey data implemented yearly in 16 EU member-states from 2018 to 2022. A vignette experiment fielded in 2022 will measure the effect of competing frames highlighting national defence, economic and cultural implications of EU membership on EU political support. Firstly, I find that support for the EU is more strongly predicted by expectations of economic prosperity than by identity or national security concerns. Secondly, I ascertain that positive economic frames generate the strongest effect in political support for the EU. This supports the contention that, in absence of a European demos, citizens look to the EU as an insurer of economic prosperity against the backdrop of a world in flux.