Shedding Light on Conspiracy Thinking: New Survey Data help Explain Differences between 23 European Countries

Research on the socio-demographic and political factors that are associated with or even cause the belief in conspiracy theories has thus far been strongly limited by the lack of comparative data. The most recent 10th wave of the ESS finally allows for testing the impact of factors that may contribute to a general predisposition to such beliefs, called “conspiracy mentality”. Preliminary findings indicate stronger support for conspiracy mentality among older people, men, people with lower formal education, and highly religious people. Economic factors such as unemployment and living in households affected by financial pressures are associated with conspiracy thinking, too. Moreover, respondents who (or their parents) were born abroad and those who feel discriminated against because of their race or religion hold stronger beliefs. Conspiracy mentality is also associated with lower trust in politics and with lower assessments of external efficacy. Internal efficacy, by contrast, is positively correlated and those with a strong conspiracy mentality are also more interested in politics. People’s ideological position, finally, exhibits a curvilinear relationship with conspiracy thinking, but those on the right of the political spectrum are more inclined to believe in them. The most important finding, however, is the large difference between the 23 European countries observed. Conspiracy mentality is a widespread phenomenon above all in the continent’s East, a relevant factor in the South but only a minority (whereas still relevant) phenomenon in the North. Explaining the impact of contextual factors and their interaction with structural and attitudinal factors on the micro level is thus of utmost importance.