Explaining the 2020 electoral protests in Belarus: long-term factors, short-term triggers and the key enabling mechanisms

This paper aims to analyse the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus and explain the puzzle why they were followed by massive, unprecedented protests in contrast to the previous presidential elections. The paper argues that a nexus of long-term factors and short-term triggers magnified through several key enabling mechanisms has contributed to a qualitative shift in Belarusian electorate and brought people in large numbers to the streets in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections. While most existing research on elections in Belarus recognises the failure of elections to correspond to international standards, it does not go deep enough to uncover the nuanced aspects of electoral processes. The proposed work aims to close this gap and carry-out in-depth case study research, drawing on personal election observation experience of the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus in the capacity of independent citizen observer. This research contributes to developing three strands of scholarship: on the micro-dynamics of authoritarian elections, electoral integrity as well as factors and mechanisms challenging stability of consolidated authoritarian regimes.