Extreme weather events, wildfire exposure and public support for climate change policy

An effective societal response to climate change requires widespread public acceptance of climate mitigation and adaptation policies. Such support is not only a requirement for governments’ ability to claim political legitimacy but is also key in ensuring effective and efficient policy implementation. Understanding public opinion on climate change thus becomes paramount for governments wanting to effectively counteract the negative consequences of a changing climate. While levels of support for climate policy continues to be lower than what would be needed for the wide-ranging societal transformations that are required to meet international climate targets, it has been suggested that changes in weather patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events might lead to a change in public attitudes. According to this line of research, changes in seasonal weather patterns, e.g., in the form of higher average temperatures, increased precipitation, and fewer days of snow, and the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as flash floods, hurricanes, and heat waves, can function as a ‘trigger’, making the effects of climate change more cognitive salient. However, while the number of studies in this area has grown rapidly during the last decade, results remain mixed and sometimes even contradictory. Furthermore, given the wide range of different methodologies, research designs, and study populations that has been employed, systematic comparison is difficult. In this study, we investigate how extreme weather events and their related impacts on the physical environment affect public support for climate change policy. Focusing on the case of Sweden, we specifically investigate how support for climate change policy is affected by (1) extremes in temperature and (2) the extent and consequences of the related wildfires. We study these relationships with a unique data set combining nationally representative survey data with climatological data from the European Union’s earth observation program Copernicus and data on wildfire exposure.