Possible trajectories for the EU and the European Economic Area

The paper takes as its point of departure the debate on the future of Europe. Drawing on that debate the paper discerns several different scenarios for the future development of the EU’s single market. One scenario is EU fragmentation, another is EU differentiation, and a third is EU consolidation. What is the role of the EU’s single market under these different scenarios? The question pertains for one to the internal coherence of the internal market, where the first scenario posts fragmentation, the second differentiation and the third further consolidation. For two the question pertains to the relation between the EU's internal market and EU core state powers. The third scenario here posits that a strengthening of EU core powers renders the internal market less central to the EU. Thus, the EU consolidation scenario is more complex. The second part of the paper discerns implications from these three scenarios for the European Economic Area (EEA). That is interesting given that the EEA ensures EEA-EFTA states virtually full access to the EU's internal market.