Election forecasting has been heavily investigated in certain democracies, such as France, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This work has produced a strong body of empirical and theoretical research on ex-ante forecasts of election outcomes. However, for certain other democracies, little or no election forecasting has been carried out. As one of few western democracies, no forecasting model has been created for Norwegian national elections. This paper focuses on forecasting the outcome of the national parliamentary election in 2013. Based on data from 16 elections since the second World War, we find that the governing left bloc´s performance in the mid-term local elections is a solid predictor of its national election vote share.
