Election Forecasts: Neglected Democracies

Abstract

Election forecasting has been heavily investigated in certain democracies – e.g., France, the United Kingdom, the United States. This work has produced a strong body of empirical and theoretical research on predicting election outcomes before they happen. However, for certain other democracies, little or no election forecasting has been carried out. This panel proposes to look at a selection of these democracies where the task of election forecasting has been neglected. In particular, statistical models for election forecasting will be offered on the following distinct cases: Belgium, Columbia, Hungary, Lithuania, Norway and Turkey. As shall be seen, it is quite possible to forecast elections in these different democratic systems. The implication is that the election forecasting exercise can profitably be expanded well beyond the major Western democracies.

Title	Details
Importance of the Left-Right Continuum in Forecasts of the Parliament Election Outcome in Latvia and Estonia	View Paper Details
Election Forecasting in Lithuania: Case of Municipal Elections	View Paper Details
A Forecasting Model for the 2013 Norwegian National Election	View Paper Details
Forecasting the Second Party Vote Share: A Model for Turkish Elections	View Paper Details
Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections or the N Problem in Forecasting Election Results in Recently Democratised Countries	View Paper Details
Forecasting Belgian Election Results. Forecasting the Outcome in a Federal Country	View Paper Details