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Importance of the Left-Right Continuum in Forecasts of the Parliament Election Outcome in Latvia and Estonia


Abstract

Debate on the framework of the left-right continuum and its impact on voting behaviour is still ongoing in the Western countries, generally recognising the split as such, and rather debating its changing nature. More radical opinion shares local opinion leaders in Latvia and Estonia doubting its existence although research of the issue lacks. The aim of the paper is to highlight the left-right continuum as a meaningful tool (rather than theoretical framework) in the research of electoral behaviour both in Latvia and Estonia, allowing to forecast the parliament election outcome with sufficient accuracy based upon the Downs thesis that voters in general tend to choose a party in elections which corresponds (or lies closest) to their self-placement in the left-right continuum (Downs, 1957); and the Laponce’s thesis concerning the left-right continuum as the “political Esperanto” – a language allowing parties and voters to understand each other (Laponce, 1981). Results of the research in Latvia indicate that the left-right continuum is still topical and significant in terms of research. Evaluation by voters, parties and experts on their own orientation and that of political parties within the left-right continuum generally match. Even more - left-right continuum is an applicable instrument for forecasting the election results. The correlation rate between mathematically modelled election outcome (employing survey data, and assuming that voters choose parties closest to one’s left-right self placement) and the actual outcome (actual split of votes in Saeima elections of 2010) equals r=0.93. As the parliament elections in Estonia will take place in March of 2011, the results will be shared before the conference according to requirements.