Comparing Covid-19 Outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean Welfare Systems: A Fuzzy-Set Analysis

The Covid-19 pandemic has affected Latin American and Caribbean countries unequally in terms of mortality and incidence of the virus. However, what factors can help us understand these divergences between countries in the region? To answer this question, a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) was carried out for the period March-July 2020 (first wave). The QCA allows for the identification of necessary and sufficient conditions to understand the incidence and mortality rates among countries. It also helps to understand what combination of conditions were present in those countries that had lower mortality and incidence rates. Twenty-two conditions present in areas such as containment policy responses (e.g., lockdowns and mobility restrictions), social policy responses (e.g., education and employment), health infrastructure (e.g., available beds, doctors, nurses), and demographic and socioeconomic factors were incorporated into the analysis. Preliminary results indicate the importance of a country’s previous health infrastructure in achieving better results in terms of mortality and incidence of the virus among its population. This suggests that investing in health is important not only for strengthening a state’s response capacity during “normal” times but also for preparing for possible future health crises.