Autocracy Promotion in Democracies? Autocratic Interference and Democratic Backsliding

The project examines whether external interference by autocratic regimes in democracies contributes to democratic backsliding. There is growing evidence of autocratic governments interfering in democracies, while at the same time democratic backsliding is on the rise. The most important drivers of backsliding are undoubtedly domestic, and so it is not surprising that research on backsliding concentrates on domestic level explanations. However, I argue that international factors can play a contributing role. External autocratic interference can function as backsliding promotion and increase domestic backsliders’ capacities. Where backsliders are in government, backsliding promotion takes the form of supportive interference strengthening the backslider government; where backsliders are in opposition, disruptive interference weakens the government and strengthens anti-democratic opposition actors. Differentiating supportive and disruptive strategies also allows me to draw inference on the sender’s objectives: if support systematically coincides with backslider governments, and disruption with backslider oppositions, I argue that senders indeed intend to promote backsliding. The paper presents first quantitative evidence of the effects of autocratic interference on democratic backsliding.