Can Urbanization Explain Voting Patterns In Latin America?

The process of urbanization in Latin America has continued with no pauses in the XXI century, as large cities continues to grow at a faster rate in small cities. Simultaneously, public funds are preferentially allocated to urban giants rather than the rural areas, with little effort in reducing the marginalization of the population that lives outside of cities. As a result, the division between cities and the countryside produces sharp differences in political and voting behavior. Two conflicting theories address how urbanization affects on citizens' political behavior. Sociological theory suggests that high urbanization disrupts social ties, which are more cohesive in rural areas. The rural population is generally conservative and focused on the social benefits of participation. In addition, the anonymity of highly urbanized areas reduces the risk of social ostracism for non-compliance with civic duty. Thus, urbanization reduces the rate of voter participation due to lower social pressure (Riker and Ordeshook, 1968; Hoffmann-Martinot, 1994). In contrast, the modernization theory (socio-economic) presents urbanization as producing middle-class citizens who are more educated, wealthier, and politically aware and, therefore, more likely to vote (Powell, 1986; Filer, Kenny and Morton, 1993). In this article, quantitative evidence coming from a time-series model of the 60 largest Latin American cities – using both voter turnout and ideological voting patterns as dependent variables – shows that urbanization does explain some political behavior, but overall its pace remains a highly circumstantial factor in determining general patterns. Part of the ambiguity of the literature concerning urbanization and political behavior stems from variations in the conceptualization of urbanization. My approach is to weigh the two conflicting theories, finding out that they're both partially correct but there must be other considerations, especially regarding the perception of urbanization in different countries.