Threat as a form of interest group pressure: How do unions and employers’ organizations use notice of industrial action?

Employers’ organizations and trade unions constitute some of the most influential interest groups, and unions are known to mobilize to impact employers as well as the state. Still, a common characteristic of post-industrial societies, especially in Western Europe, is the diminishing number of strikes and lockouts. We propose that at least in some contexts – Sweden – the decline of work stoppages is not as much a sign of decreased interest group activism, but rather the change of the form of interest group interaction. Based on the archival data from Sweden for the period of 1980-2020, we argue and empirically show that the sole focus on strikes gives a misleading picture of labor conflict. Thus, we propose to broaden the concept so that it also includes a threat of conflict, namely, notices of industrial action. Many countries require that work stoppages are precluded by notice, but far from all notices are carried out. Thus, there is more threat than real action. In the Swedish case, we have data about all the notices and the actors submitting the notices during the last 40 years. This allows us to analyze which kinds of unions and employers’ organizations and when, in what context, the threat is used in order to put pressure on the target. Although in such a specific form the “threat” appears only in the context of labor market relations, it might be worthy addition even for theorizing the interaction and influence of other interest groups.