When do municipal mergers occur? Drivers for territorial consolidation across 40 European countries and three decades

A clear trend towards territorial consolidation of the municipal tier has been observed in Europe and even accelerated in the recent decade (Swianiewicz et al. 2022). However, the cross-national comparisons of municipal mergers are still underdeveloped: various country observations have been categorized, but the occurrence and absence of mergers in particular countries at a particular time are still difficult to explain in a systematic manner. To answer when mergers occur, we follow up on the study of Western European experiences by Askim et al. (2017); we compare the occurrences of municipal mergers in post-1990 Eastern, Central and Western Europe. We apply Kingdon’s (1984) Multiple Stream Framework (MSF) to explain the occurrence of mergers. While recent reviews indicate that the vast majority of MSF studies are case studies, we respond to a broad agreement in the MSF literature about the usefulness of testing the MSF in a larger sample size (Herweg et al. 2018). The analysis is a partial test of the complex MSF, where we focus on how certain problem indicators affect the likelihood of policy change. The problem indicators in question includes problems related to fiscal stress, demographic change, and increased local policy scope. We furthermore distinguish between localized and centralized rule systems for merger decisions, thereby expanding the scope of MSF studies to multilevel contexts. Askim, J., J. E. Klausen, S. I. Vabo and K. Bjurstrøm (2017). "Territorial upscaling of local governments: a variable-oriented approach to explaining variance among Western European countries." Local Government Studies 43(4): 555-576. Askim, J., J. E. Klausen, S. I. Vabo and K. H. Bjurstrøm (2016). What Causes Municipal Amalgamation Reform? Rational Explanations Meet western European Experiences, 2004-13. Local Public Sector Reforms in Times of Crisis: National Trajectories and International Comparisons. S. Kuhlmann and G. Bouckaert. Basingstoke, Palgrave MacMillian: 59-79. Herweg, N., N. Zaharidias and R. Zohlnhöfer (2018). The Multiple Streams Framework: Foundations, Refinements and Empirical Applications. Theories of the Policy Process (4th ed.). C. M. Weible and P. A. Sabatier. New York, Westview press: 17-53. Kingdon, J. W. (1984). Agendas, alternatives and public policies. Boston, Little, Brown and Company. Swianiewicz, P., A. Gendźwiłł, K. Houlberg and J. E. Klausen, Eds. (2022). Municipal territorial reforms of 21st century in Europe. Abingdon, Routledge.