Networks of expectations and visions in the governance of hydrogen technologies in Germany – a longitudinal, multi-technology, and multi-sectoral perspective

Successful environmental politics and sustainable transitions do not only require incremental changes of existing socio-technological regimes but also the implementation of technological solutions that might contribute to far-reaching transformations of different societal sectors, such as energy, transportation, and industry. As many of the technologies that have the capacity to radically transform those sectors are not yet fully developed, their future transformative potential is discussed in the form of expectations, visions, and imaginaries that are also the basis of negotiations, formulating strategies, and decisions regarding substantial policy support. The recent surge of global interest in hydrogen technologies as a radical solution to environmental challenges in multiple sectors has been preceded by multiple earlier phases of industry and policy interest, just as phases of relative disinterest, low investments, and little policy support. Germany is an interesting case, as policy support for hydrogen technologies has been comparatively stable for almost two decades here despite changing expectations and visions, in contrast to other countries whose policies have been more volatile. Against this background, our paper studies how the German policy discourse and governance of hydrogen technologies evolved between 2005 and 2023 on the federal level. It focuses on policymaking activities and changes in expectations over time. In particular, it asks how the dynamics of expectations relate to policy support and which expectations, visions, and imaginaries were particularly performative in converging political actors and triggering policy measures. Conceptually, the paper builds on the sociology of expectations and the networks of expectations approaches. Methodologically, these research questions are addressed using a discourse analytical approach. The aim of the study is to provide insights about the role that future expectations and visions play in shaping environmental policymaking. The findings of this study can also help to better understand how competing expectations and visions arrive in the policy agenda. Furthermore, the results of this study could enrich discussions on how policy actors could reflexively deal with expectations regarding promising technologies and find a balance between too adaptive and too rigid reactions to changing societal expectations.