Analysing political feasibility in energy transitions: Norway as a case in point

Energy transitions are contested and research on the politics of transitions has recently received more attention. Political intervention has historically been a crucial part of all major transitions, both in inducing them as well as in managing the social consequences and pathway directions, thus emphasising the role of policy and politics in energy transitions. Analysing political feasibility therefore is an important aspect of understanding the scope of possible energy transition pathways. This paper reviews theory on political feasibility in energy transitions, develops a pragmatic analytical framework to analyse energy transition political feasibility, and suggests some ways forward for practical analysis guided by the example of Norway. While a high number of factors will influence transition pathway political feasibility, a key assumption here is that interest structures are the main influence factor behind the direction and shape of a transition pathway. The paper takes a starting point in the observation that policymakers will usually adopt or implement policies that align with the interest of important stakeholders. If an energy transition pathway receives significant and tangible support over time, it is likely to see positive feedbacks, where investments in and ownership of established infrastructures, R&D, competence, and political alliances become stronger over time. While future interest coalitions are difficult to predict, contemporary interest coalitions are likely to give some indications of future directions. Based on the imperfect insight that actors in a regime tend to shape policy to their own interests we can assume that future pathway direction generally will align with the main interest structures in the energy sectors. The analytical framework develops two main dimensions for analysing the political feasibility of energy-transition pathways: structural conditions, and dynamic domestic politics. Structural conditions represent far-reaching and slow-changing influences that typically includes economic, political, and sociocultural conditions to affect policy development. Adoption and design of a particular policy or pathway are heavily influenced by the alignment with such structural interests or ‘national characteristics’. Following the structural dimension, the pathway with a better fit with structural interests is more politically feasible. Dynamic domestic politics, on the other hand, represents a shorter-term rational-actor-based perspective, where the influence of stakeholders on policy-decisions is deemed crucial to policy outcomes. Interest groups are central to the adoption of policy, which is unlikely to succeed without the support of a winning coalition. Here, the pathway with the most supporters is more politically feasible. The combination of structural interests that align (or not) with decarbonisation strategies, and dynamic interests providing a more short-term and fluctuating perspective on political feasibility, enable a simple, practical analysis of political feasibility. Resting on a literature review the paper develops the political feasibility framework. Using the case of energy transition in Norway as an illustrative example anchors the framework to empirical observations. As Norway’s main decarbonisation strategy is electrification, with growing challenges of its already fully renewable electricity sector, the case is useful for illuminating the use of the framework for analysing also other national contexts.