The Great Plot: Analyzing Political Conspiracy Beliefs Across Europe

In the past decade, amidst a range of complex political crises, the notion that corrupt elites engage in secretive plotting behind the backs of ordinary citizens has garnered increased attention and popularity among certain segments of Western societies. Although a growing body of political science research addresses this phenomenon, most studies mainly focus on specific contexts instead of adopting a comparative perspectives across different topics or countries. Drawing on novel survey data that fielded in ten EU member states in October 2022 the paper addresses this issue by mapping and analyzing the prevalence of political conspiracy thought along four different subject areas - migration, climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. By applying statistical modelling it investigates the deeper roots and contexts of political conspiracy belief in two steps. First, the study maps the prevalence of conspiracy thought across Europe, identifying differences between countries as well as specific social groups that are more likely to believe in its myths. Second, by testing the influence of (objective and subjective) economic deprivation as well as satisfaction with democracy, political trust, and the willingness to use violence to express political attitudes, it seeks to evaluate the impact of possible economic and cultural explanations. With this, the study contributes to the growing literature on political conspiracy thought by enhancing its comparative potential and helping to better understand the causes for the recent spreading of this type of belief across Europe.