European integration of non-member countries in context of the global economic crisis

The global economic crisis 2008-09 has produced significant challenges to the international and, particularly, European political, economic and social system. This paper aims to investigate, how the dynamics of European integration of non-member countries with the European Union (EU) has changed as a result of the global economic crisis. Despite the vital scientific interest and political relevance of the topic, extant literature has currently not provided an encompassing account of the puzzling effects of the global economic crisis on the European integration of non-member countries, and particularly on the different frameworks for EU foreign policy making towards its neighbours. The research in this area is rather scarce, non-systematic and limited to specific case studies or time periods. The theoretical approach I introduce, suggests that the probability of deeper political integration between the EU and non-member countries depends on the interaction between the economic and political sets of determinants. In this paper I, particularly, emphasize a crucial role of political stability and economic interdependence for the progress in the European integration of non-member countries. The global economic crisis impacts these two major drivers of European integration in an opposite way and provides therefore puzzling effects. It is expected, that, in the context of economic recession, weakened economic interdependence will negatively impact the probability of deeper political integration. Oppositely, an increased political uncertainty is expected to positively affect this probability. To assess my theoretical argument I provide a series of statistical tests that makes it empirically valid and applicable for further research.