Fit for 55 in the EU? The Challenge of Policy Coherence

The EU’s Fit for 55 package represents a wide-ranging and unprecedented effort at creating a coherent approach to climate policies and effort sharing within and across sectors. The EU’s European Green Deal (EUGD) and the Fit for 55 package have an impressive coverage and high ambitions. After the launch of the EUGD in 2019 and subsequently the Fit for 55 package, aligning policies with the 55% cut target, key policies are being ratcheted up, including the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), and the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) framework, and new policies are being developed, including the ETS for transport and buildings and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In addition, both the development of the taxonomy and the REPowerEU process are relevant and linked processes. There are complex interactions between these policies and both possible synergies and trade-offs. This paper examines the coherence of climate and land-use policies and how policy coherence may affect policy implementation and effectiveness. The analysis draws on the evolving literature on policy coherence and focuses particularly on the relationship between the ‘established’ climate policies and the ‘new’ policies related to land use, land-use change and forestry, as well as carbon removal. Thus far, the literature has not paid sufficient attention to the synergies and trade-offs involved in designing and implementing coherent climate and land-use policies. By examining the politics of climate policy coherence and the possible synergies, trade-offs and conflicts involved, this paper contributes to the literature on policy coherence and related concepts such as policy integration, policy interaction and policy coordination. We begin with an examination of the main policy outcomes and the overall coherence of EU climate and land use policies. Whereas coherence is a stated ambition, an examination of the extent to which coherence has been achieved requires studying both specific policy outcomes, which are complex dossiers in themselves, and possible synergies and conflicts between polices. We examine the EU policymaking processes to clarify the extent to which and how the central EU institutions and member states have considered and discussed possible synergies and conflicts between policies. Finally, we discuss prospects ahead, including the development of net carbon removal policies and possible linkages to the EU ETS, as well as the possible development of a post-2030 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) framework, as the Commission intends. We conclude that the ability of the EU to continue acting as an international climate governance leader depends critically on the coherence of its evolving climate, energy, and land-use policies.