The interrelations of zero-carbon energy transition and security in the Finnish and Norwegian Arctic

The Arctic region confronts a paradox of global significance: while fossil fuel production and consumption contribute to massive-scale environmental and climate degradation, there is an urgent imperative to protect the Arctic's fragile ecosystems while ensuring its habitability. This paper embarks on an in-depth exploration of zero-carbon energy transition processes in the Arctic and seeks to unravel the underlying factors that support incumbent energy regimes and hinders the development of sustainable energy technologies and consumptions practices. Our central hypothesis posits that the concept of security serves as an essential in explaining the dynamics of energy transitions in this unique context. We systematically analysed all Arctic strategies put forth by Finland and Norway since 2006. Also, we conducted 27 expert interviews with Arctic stakeholders during the period of 2022-2023. Employing a discourse analysis framework, we scrutinised the narratives surrounding energy transitions within the overarching framework of Arctic security. Our analytical approach consisted of two primary steps: firstly, we identified and employed macro processes developed within the sustainability transitions literature to trace the evolution of these transitions. Those processes are identified as transformative outcomes during niche expansion and regime decline. Secondly, we critically connected these processes to the dual conceptualisation of security, encompassing both positive and negative security paradigms. This methodological approach enabled us to go beyond traditional state-centric security frameworks and broaden the perspectives to encompass the nuanced challenges intrinsic to policymaking and the multifaceted issues confronting the Arctic. Our preliminary findings indicate that the Arctic strategies emphasise the fortification of existing energy regimes, which is intricately linked to negative security considerations. Furthermore, our analysis has unveiled instances of positive security discourses intertwined with both niche development and regime support, with a notable emphasis on the Norwegian documents that highlight the development of niches within the context of the oil and gas industry. This has both positive and negative implications, as while the production is ongoing it also brings societal well-being in the North. Although energy niches are supported in principle, it happens with strict limitations and in the rules of the regime, harsh conditions, and sparsely populated areas with scarce economic resources. The interview analysis with Arctic experts have contributed a crucial regional perspective to the intersection of energy and security. Our analysis indicates that after the Russian war in Ukraine the Arctic stakeholders have had to reconsider and emphasise their roles not only in mitigating the adverse impacts of climate, but also in positive effects.