How Public Opinion Polarisation Shapes Conflict in International Negotiations: Evidence from Debates in the Council of the European Union

Research has shown that public opinion affects how governments act in international negotiations. We focus on the way in which the public opinion in countries affects governments' approach to policy making on the international level. Exploiting the specific structure of debates in the Council of the European, we study participation and expressed support for proposals. We combine public opinion measures on specific policy issues in the member states of the European Union with a dataset of debates in the Council of the European Union between 2011 and 2016. We show that pro-EU governments with positive public opinion at home participate more in debates and speak more positively, while this effect is muted for eurosceptic governments. Our paper contributes to scholars’ understanding of how domestic audiences’ preferences shape outcomes at the international level.