GENDER AND THE POLITICAL SURVIVAL OF DEMOCRATIC LEADERS

Since the 1960s, an increasing number of women have won the highest office in democracies around the globe. But how likely are they to retain office? Recent research on gender and high office suggests that they often come to office in more difficult conditions than men do; that women presidents and prime ministers may enter with lower approval ratings than men, and that their ratings may decline more rapidly as their term unfolds. Women leaders thus appear likely to experience shorter tenure, but we know little as yet about the conditions that affect their survival in office. Does the type of office – president or prime minister – matter? And do conditions during their tenure, such as domestic conflict, economic turmoil, or a high level of executive-branch corruption, have different impacts for female vs. male incumbents? Using an original data set of presidents and prime ministers in democracies between 1960-2018, we analyze gender and survival in office. We show that among leaders eligible to run in the next election, women incumbents are slightly more likely than men to retain office. Family ties greatly influence this difference; women who followed a relative into the highest office are more likely to run a second time. Once we control for a family tie, women and men have about the same odds of winning reelection.