Does Ideology Trump Geography? Political Divides and MEP Responses to Democratic Backsliding

Multiple rounds of EU enlargement and the rise of populism have affected the organisation of political competition in the European Parliament (EP). This study probes how the EU’s efforts to redress democratic backsliding in several EU member states crystallize deepening divides between European lawmakers. Our empirical analysis examines 17 roll-call votes on rule of law issues and well over 900 discursive frames from corresponding parliamentary debates held between 2009 and 2019. We find a growing polarisation of position, with discourse and votes increasingly aligning along an ideological divide that pits populist radical right and Eurosceptics MEPs against representatives from pro-EU European party groups. At the same time, we find that geographic origin remains strongly predictive of MEP behaviour, with a clear East-West divide for both roll-call votes and oral interventions in rule of law debates. We unpack these divides and discuss their relevance for the EU’s responses to democratic backsliding and the changing nature of legislative politics in the EP more generally.