Is Fico pulling the Slovaks to the East? The impact of institutional trust and party cues on individual geopolitical preferences

The Russian war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the attitudes of EU citizens toward both Russia and the EU. In this sense, Slovakia has recently witnessed a shift from a clearly pro-EU government to a more Russia-leaning cabinet under the leadership of Robert Fico, which can be interpreted as a sign of "Western fatigue". During the electoral campaign, Fico's party (SMER) pledged to reduce or halt Slovak military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and promoting a fast resolution of the conflict two of the top priorities for its future government. These promises resonated well with the Slovak public, which consistently ranks among the less pro-Western in Central and Eastern Europe, and allowed Fico to become Prime Minister. With its new government, Slovakia aligns itself with neighbouring Hungary, led by Viktor Orban, in the group of countries highly critical of the EU's ongoing support for Ukraine. Considering the governmental shift, this paper will focus on Slovak public opinion and explore two key questions: (1) How has the emergence of a more geopolitically ambivalent government affected individual support for the EU and Russia? and (2) How do party cues and institutional trust influence individual geopolitical preferences in Fico-ruled Slovakia? To address these research questions, this work will rely on the analyses of a survey and experimental data to be collected in Slovakia in the coming months. Preliminary results suggest that the general distribution of geopolitical preferences has remained relatively stable after Fico's rise to power, albeit with a potential increase in geopolitical polarization within the Slovak society.