Wiggle-Room: The Demand Side of China’s Growing Influence in Central and Eastern Europe

In the last decade, China's interactions with Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations, within the framework of the 17+1 cooperation format, have witnessed an evolution. This format pledged heightened economic and political collaboration, substantial investments in regional infrastructure, and deepening cultural and political ties. While prevailing literature predominantly examines China's actions in the region (a supply-side perspective), this paper offers an alternative, demand-side perspective, delving into the motivations prompting CEE governments to intensify or restrain political relations with China. The analysis seeks to decipher both cross-country variations and temporal fluctuations within individual countries. Contrary to conventional economic-centric explanations, the paper posits that the political ideology of the ruling party in a CEE nation serves as a more comprehensive explanatory factor for the choices regarding deepening political ties with China. The empirical examination involves mapping the political stances of parliamentary parties across the CEE region, revealing a notable correlation between parties adhering to traditional, authoritarian, or nationalist (TAN) ideologies and a proclivity for engagement with China. Conversely, parties subscribing to green, alternative, and libertarian ideologies exhibit a reluctance. This shift to the GAL/TAN dimension in party politics supersedes the traditional left/right partisan dimension in influencing foreign policy decisions. Methodologically, the study adopts a mixed approach, combining quantitative analysis of economic and political relations between China and CEE countries with qualitative comparative and content analyses. Findings challenge the assumption of a direct relationship between Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the depth of political engagement, spotlighting Serbia and Hungary as regional outliers. Qualitative analysis further substantiates the claim that party ideology serves as a more reliable predictor of foreign policy orientation. The paper also probes into the motivations driving traditional, authoritarian, or nationalist parties toward deeper relations with China. It argues that these parties' ideological predispositions, which incline towards reclaiming national sovereignty and limiting Western influence, prompt a strategic pursuit of autonomy in foreign relations by fostering deeper ties with China. In gist, political elites choose to deepen their engagement with China in order to gain more "wiggle-room" in their relationship with Brussels and Washington. This research contributes significantly to our understanding of China-CEE relations by offering a demand-side perspective. The paper concludes by acknowledging the study's limitations and proposing avenues for future research in this evolving geopolitical landscape. The nuanced insights presented herein have implications for policymakers and scholars seeking a more comprehensive comprehension of the intricate dynamics shaping China's engagement with Central and Eastern Europe.