The digital divide. Gender differences in online negative campaigning

The landscape of political communication has profoundly transformed due to the Web 2.0 revolution. The current generation of politicians faces the unique challenges of ascending to power in profoundly mediated contexts. Regrettably, the advantages of digital visibility are accompanied by a downside, as the online realm has evolved into an authentic frontier for violence — a platform where insults are not only expressed but also disseminated. While negative campaigning is not considered a form of political violence in the literal sense, it can have negative consequences for the political process and democracy by fostering polarization, reducing public trust, and discouraging participation. Questions related to gender differences have undeniably become a more pressing topic, and indeed, a politician’s gender has become one of the most intensively studied determinants of attack behavior during elections. However, our current comprehension of gender differences in negative campaigning remains inadequate, as most research focuses solely on the United States and, therefore, on a system with candidate-centered campaigns, weak party organizations, and winner-takes-all competitions. Such a context is very specific and likely to bias the results. Even in the United States, results are inconclusive due to the use of a limited number of cases or the absence of longitudinal studies. To address these shortcomings, this paper undertakes an in-depth longitudinal quantitative content analysis, examining all 30,000 Twitter messages sent by 400 individual politicians holding a realistic position on the ballot in the three months leading up to the 2019 and 2024 regional and Federal elections in Belgium. This expanded dataset intends to capture a more comprehensive picture of gender differences in negative campaigning and aims to identify potential evolutions by focusing on two different elections. Additionally, this study addresses a second gap by scrutinizing social media instead of traditional media, offering a contemporary perspective on political communication strategies. Our preliminary findings confirm gender differences in negative campaigning within a Western European party-centered context. Women politicians are significantly less likely to engage in negative campaigning, and discernible differences exist between women and men’s preferences for policy-based versus trait attacks.