Cost of electoral manipulation and elections in electoral authoritarian regimes

Are incumbents in electoral authoritarian regimes choosing between different forms of electoral manipulation based on their direct and indirect costs? Despite the vast research agenda on this topic, no global cross-national analyses with newer cases are available. While using a dataset that includes 340 elections in 68 electoral authoritarian regimes from 1980 to 2020, this study aims to fill this gap and explore how incumbents decide between different tactics of electoral manipulation. Results reveal that costs rarely affect choosing between different types of electoral manipulation. Instead, the study finds that incumbents will likely deploy most or all electoral manipulation at once if they have the opportunity. Moreover, contrary to theoretical expectations, the more uncertain the electoral outcome, the less manipulation is employed. The study contributes to understanding electoral authoritarian regimes by debunking the myths prevalent in the literature.