The EU’s crisis budget negotiation of 2020: The silent package deal within the European Council

This paper analyses the negotiations that concluded the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the years 2021 to 2027, the Next Generation EU recovery package, and the Union’s rule of law mechanism. Drawing on elite interviews with senior officials from the 27 permanent representations, national ministries and EU institutions, the paper identifies divisions present within the Council, and the construction of ‘a silent package deal’ in 2020. Under the circumstances of crisis, the package was less costly for all parties than the prospect of failure. We identify four coalitions among Member States, some of which overlapped with each other: the Frugal Four, a southern group distinct from the friends of cohesion, a coalition in favour of rule of law - "the friends of conditionality" - and a heterogeneous group that shaped the outcome due to a range of side payments.