Will the EU Escape Its Autocracy Trap?

For a decade, the EU did very little to counter the trend of backsliding on democracy and the rule of law in Hungary and Poland. But since 2022, the EU has turned to a more robust approach to defending rule of law and democratic values in these backsliding member states. This shift, together with the recent victory of the democratic opposition in Poland, has given many observers cause to hope that the EU might finally escape its authoritarian equilibrium or autocracy trap. With these developments in mind, this article explores three central questions concerning the EU’s reaction to the rise of autocratic member state governments. First, why did the EU for so long fail to act robustly to address the crisis? Second, why has the EU become more assertive in addressing the autocracy crisis since 2022? Third, and more prospectively, do the developments in Poland and the EU’s more assertive stance in defending democracy mean that the EU may be on the cusp of escaping its autocracy trap? In short, I argue that while the erosion of some of the ‘pillars of passivity’ finally stirred EU institutions to act after 2021, we should not yet expect the EU to escape its authoritarian equilibrium anytime soon.