"White knights" - Why liberal democracy survived in Poland, but not in Hungary

The existing literature on EU politics has predominantly explored the phenomenon of democratic backsliding in two Member States, Poland and Hungary, emphasizing commonalities while overlooking potential divergent factors influencing their future trajectories. This article seeks to fill this gap by examining the distinctive paths taken by these nations: Poland experiencing a democratic reconsolidation after eight years of backsliding, while Hungary's Orbán regime has effectively entrenched its authoritarian structures. Drawing on established literature on democratic backsliding and the rule of conflict, we employ a triangulation strategy that integrates semi-structured expert interviews, primary EU documents, speeches, and secondary data. Our analysis identifies key differences contributing to these disparate outcomes, categorizing factors as either external or internal. The examination exposes numerous endogenous causes in Poland, encompassing semi-presidentialism, a proportional electoral system, and a comparatively weaker grip on backsliding, particularly in media and corruption domains. External influences, such as U.S. impact and the EU's financial conditionality, emerge as significant contributors to recent developments in Poland. Conversely, Hungary's orientation toward Russia has led to a geopolitical shift eastwards, resulting in isolation within the EU. This article enhances our comprehension of the nuanced factors influencing democratic transitions within the EU, providing valuable insights into the intricacies of political developments in Poland and Hungary.