Gender and Perceived Electability in Morocco

Do perceptions of whether other people will vote for female candidates influence voters' own willingness to elect women? Recent findings suggest that perceived gender norms often diverge from actual levels of support for gender equality around the world, and that voters in advanced electoral democracies may strategically discriminate against individuals they view as likely to face bias in electoral competition. We investigate whether a divergence between perceived and actual support for female candidates reduces individuals' willingness to vote for women in a more patriarchal, authoritarian context. Drawing on a nationally-representative survey with an embedded conjoint experiment in Morocco, we test whether male respondents tend to disfavor women and whether respondents' preferences for male versus female candidates correlate more with their perceptions of what male (versus female) voters prefer. Our results have important implications for the extent to which (potentially exaggerated) perceptions of opposition to women as candidates inhibits their chances of electoral success.