Gender dynamics in online negative campaigning: A longitudinal analysis of attack behaviour and incivility in social media discourse by political candidates

The landscape of political communication has profoundly transformed due to the Web 2.0 revolution (Davis, 2023). The current generation of politicians faces the unique challenges of ascending to power in profoundly mediated contexts. The advantages of digital visibility are accompanied by a downside, as the online realm has evolved into a platform where insults are not only expressed but also disseminated (Bjarnegård & Zetterberg, 2023). Negative campaigning can negatively affect the political process and democracy by fostering polarization, reducing public trust, and discouraging participation (Lau et al., 2007; Haselmayer, 2019). In an era marked by crises such as Brexit, COVID-19, climate challenges, and escalating international conflicts, it is crucial to understand the role of political communication in shaping public perception and trust. Questions related to gender differences in negative campaigning have undeniably become a more pressing topic (Cassese & Holman, 2018). However, our current comprehension of gender differences in negative campaigning remains inadequate, as most research focuses solely on the United States and, therefore, on a system with candidate-centered campaigns, weak party organizations, and winner-takes-all competitions. Such a context is very specific and likely to bias the results (Ennser-Jedenastik et al., 2017). Even in the United States, results are inconclusive due to the use of a limited number of cases or the absence of longitudinal studies. Moreover, the shift from traditional to social media as a primary communication channel remains understudied in the context of negative campaigning and gender disparities. To address these shortcomings (US-centered, limited samples, short-term, and focused on traditional media), this paper undertakes an in-depth longitudinal quantitative content analysis, examining all 30,000 Twitter messages sent by 400 individual politicians holding a realistic position on the ballot in the three months leading up to the 2019 and 2024 regional and Federal elections in Belgium. This expanded dataset intends to capture a more comprehensive and nuanced picture of gender differences in negative campaigning, encompassing incivility, toxicity, and variations in issue versus trait attacks. Delving deeper, the paper explores the hypothesis that negative campaigning and the gender gap in online communication have intensified in the past five years, driven by the evolving political landscape and recent crises. Findings for 2019 confirm gender disparities in negative campaigning within the Western European party-centered context. Women politicians are notably less likely to engage in general attack behaviour, uncivil and toxic attacks. Further distinctions emerge in the preferences of women and men for policy-based versus trait attacks. In conclusion, this research not only broadens our comprehension of gender disparities in online political communication but also furnishes critical insights into the role of social media in shaping political discourse within the West European context. By navigating beyond the confines of previous research limitations and expanding the geographical scope, this study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between gender, negative campaigning, and evolving communication channels in contemporary politics.