The relationship between turbulence and autonomy in non-EU-member states: Climate and energy policy in Norway

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between turbulence and autonomy in non-member states. An important reason for non-member states to stay outside the European Union is sovereignty, understood as an exclusive legal right to final decision. In reality, however, non-member states that cooperate with the EU find themselves in a relationship where the EU is the hegemon. Nevertheless, they continue to cooperate with the EU, acknowledging that there are benefits of cooperating and that their autonomy might actually increase (through increases in collective action capability) as a consequence of such relations. Therefore, autonomy, defined by Fossum et al. (2023) as an actor’s ability or will to stake out its own course and the means it has available for doing so, depicts the relations between states and societies in a better way than sovereignty. However, it is an unexplored question whether and how increased turbulence – defined by Ansell and Trondal (2018) as situations where events, demands and support interact in highly variable, inconsistent, unexpected and unpredictable ways – affects perceptions of autonomy in non-member states. What happens to the autonomy of non-member states when EU policy-making processes accelerate in pace and EU policies become more holistic, composite and complex than ever? This is an important question, given the expectation that such developments put strong pressures on functionally differentiated, sector-specific domestic administrations and political systems that are designed to deal with much slower decision-making processes. By adding another layer of power and institutional arrangements, the EU is expected to add turbulence to domestic political systems – and even more so in non-member states than in member states. This is because of the assumption that such dynamic interactions are particularly challenging in non-member states affiliated with the EU, as they have less insights into the policy-making processes at the EU level and there is less of an internal ‘drive’ than in member states, where EU matters are more visible in the domestic political debates. The European Green Deal cuts across sectors and has introduced a large number of new and revised policies and measures at great speed. Hence, it is relevant to study whether the European Green Deal creates turbulence at the national level and, if so, how such turbulence affects national autonomy. Norway is a particularly interesting case to study in this regard. Being a member of the European Economic Agreement means that Norway is part of the single market. In addition, the country cooperates with the EU on achieving its climate targets and is connected to a number of European countries via power cables. On the one hand, there is an expectation that the European Green Deal creates considerable challenges of protecting areas of national competency which become entangled by being covered by various parts of the European Green Deal. On the other hand, it could be expected that Norway, as a wealthy country with a well-functioning democracy, professional bureaucracy and solid climate policy track records would be fairly resistant to any turbulence induced by the European Green Deal.