Affective polarization is assumed to rise during election campaigns. Feelings towards co-partisans and political opponents increase as politics become more pronounced and the stakes increase (Sood & Iyengar, 2016) and party preferences crystallize as one needs to pick one single party on election day. Heightened levels of affective polarization have been found close to election day in Israel and Spain (Bassan-Nygate & Weiss, 2022; Hernández et al., 2021), but polarization dynamics within the campaign and individual level drivers are not addressed in these studies. More detailed research has been conducted in the United States and demonstrates an increase in affective polarization towards presidential candidates during election campaigns (Singh & Thornton, 2023). However, more fine-grained insights into the dynamics and drivers of affective polarization within multi-party election campaigns are lacking. These insights are valuable for understanding affective polarization in multi-party systems, as dynamics are likely to be more complex and multi-faceted compared to two-party systems such as in the US, due to the more complex political environment (i.e. multiple parties) and a higher need for cooperation and consensus building between those parties. Furthermore, how political parties communicate during election campaigns is radically different in multi-party systems than in majoritarian systems, with less negative campaigning. This study will fill the knowledge gap by focusing on the dynamics of affective polarization among citizens during the 2023 Dutch elections. The Netherlands is an interesting case for studying affective polarization due to the high number of parties that are elected. Moreover, political norms, the way politicians communicate and polarization itself became focal points in the 2023 campaign.
To asses the development of affective polarization and to determine what drives these developments, we employ a seven-wave panel survey (N = ~2500) held over the course of the entire Dutch 2023 election campaign. We preliminarily find that average levels of affective polarization, measured through feeling thermometers towards both parties and voters of parties, only minimally increased as the election campaign progressed. Further dynamic panel models (latent growth modelling) will be used to identify different polarization dynamics for different groups of citizens (such as groups based on ideological preferences; holding populist attitudes; media-use; campaign-exposure and political interest) and potential drivers (such as determination of vote) of affective polarization.
References:
Bassan-Nygate, L., & Weiss, C. M. (2022). Party Competition and Cooperation Shape Affective Polarization: Evidence from Natural and Survey Experiments in Israel. Comparative Political Studies, 55(2), 287–318. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211024283
Hernández, E., Anduiza, E., & Rico, G. (2021). Affective polarization and the salience of elections. Electoral Studies, 69, 102203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102203
Singh, S. P., & Thornton, J. R. (2023). Does the Salience of Partisan Competition Increase Affective Polarization in the United States? Political Research Quarterly, 10659129231192943. https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129231192943
Sood, G., & Iyengar, S. (2016). Coming to Dislike Your Opponents: The Polarizing Impact of Political Campaigns (SSRN Scholarly Paper 2840225). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2840225
