From Partisan Hearts to Cynical Minds: Investigating the Impact of Affective Polarisation on Political Trust and Cynicism

In recent years, radical and populist parties have repeatedly scored electoral successes in Europe, reflecting the simultaneous rise in populist and anti-democratic attitudes among the electorate. Political trust and cynicism constitute two important explanatory factors for this development (Fieschi et al, 2004). Concurrently, affective polarisation, characterized by intense divisions between supporters of different political parties, has become a growing concern in many Western democracies (Berntzen et al., 2023; Wagner, 2021). With the aim of understanding the link between these attitudes better, this study delves into the impact of affective polarisation on political trust and cynicism within multiparty systems. Whereas previous research has looked at the relation between affective polarisation and trust (Hetherington & Rudolph, 2017; Torcal et al., 2022), political cynicism remains notoriously absent, despite its common presence in political science literature (Dancey et al., 2012; Pattyn et al., 2012; Rijkhoff et al., 2018). As a result, their interplay has not yet been examined. Utilising a nationally representative two-wave panel study conducted in Belgium (Wave 1: N = 7,500; Wave 2: N = 4,500), this research provides a comprehensive analysis of how heightened levels of affective polarisation may influence individuals' trust in political institutions and their political cynicism. Building on previous literature, this study hypothesises that affective polarisation will drive a decline in political trust as well as fuelling political cynicism. Importantly, I examine whether these patterns are more pronounced for certain sub-groups, expecting that this link will be weaker for non-partisans and politically disinterested individuals. Additionally, to understand the broader relevance of these patterns, I investigate to what extent individuals who display higher levels of affective polarisation, political distrust and cynicism in turn exhibit lowers levels of democratic satisfaction and political support. Finally, by leveraging the two-wave panel, the study allows me to examine the impact of level and changes in affective polarisation, as well as considering the different impacts of affect towards political parties (vertical) versus their supporters (horizontal), and shallow (like-dislike) versus entrenched forms (social distance and traits) of affective polarisation. In sum, this study aims to further illuminate whether affective polarisation has a detrimental impact on the democratic fabric. As the erosion of political trust and rise of cynicism threaten the legitimacy and functioning of democratic institutions, a deeper understanding of what drives them is highly needed.