What will remain of the 2010s? Explaining the varying trajectories of anti-austerity parties in Southern Europe

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, new (or, at that time, fringe) parties made inroads into the Southern Europe, a region particularly affected by the sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures. The shared ambition of such challenger parties was to represent excluded sections of the population, or even the '99%', or the 'people', and was in most cases accompanied by a discourse of democratic regeneration, also through innovative organizational practices. Ten years later, what remains of those parties in the five main countries of the area (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, as well as France, where there was also the irruption of a left-wing populist party)? What were their systemic impacts? To what extent have the promises of representation and democratic regeneration been fulfilled? Above all: is it possible to systematically explain the reasons for extremely divergent outcomes? The paper proposes a framework for analyzing the varying trajectories of the main political movements of our interest: the Portuguese radical left, Podemos, La France Insoumise, the 5 Star Movement and Syriza. The paper argues that at least three factors are central to understanding their different evolution. First: electoral success and participation in government. Evidence shows that, without exception, the latter has been detrimental to the parties' electoral fortunes. Second: their ideology and organization. These can be considered as factors that can facilitate or hinder the adaptation of the party to different political context (e.g. the return of the centrality of the left-right axis). Thirdly, the strategic reactions of mainstream political actors, particularly the traditional center-left parties. It is possible to outline three scenarios: a scenario of substantial continuity (Portugal) or 'return to the past' (i.e. to the 'pre-populist' phase: Spain); a ‘mainstreaming’ scenario, with a centripetal drift and loss of capacity to preside over the contestation space (Greece); a scenario of consolidation as a 'populist leftist' actor, in opposition (France) or alternative (Italy) to the mainstream center or center-left parties.