The elite agenda and public views: A mirroring perspective on EU issues in Hungary

In an electoral autocracy it is a challenging question how public views are formed, how they are interpreted, and eventually how they receive a representative response. It is not a less inspiring question – although rarely asked - how do public views evaluate the elite per se. The proposal aims to examine both approaches focusing on Hungary around the theme of European integration, which is a hot topic both internally and internationally. The analysis is based on novel elite interviews and a public opinion survey conducted in 2023. In more concrete terms the paper will examine the following aspects: the creation of public opinion regarding the EU, the changing views of the Hungarian public on this field, and finally the distorted mirror effect between the governing elite and public perceptions. There is no concrete information about how extensively and how often the government uses public opinion surveys. From secondary sources one can rightly posit that public opinion is measured on all relevant topics and with high frequency, including the European Union. Still in these instances it is difficult to unfold how the public perceptions are being influenced. This is insured by the so called national consultations and the large scale billboard campaigns. The paper will highlight that the government makes huge efforts to raise the wind of doubt in the Hungarian public in this regard. Despite these efforts still the majority of the population acknowledges and appreciates the European Union’s beneficial effect on the Hungarian society. The paper will demonstrate with concrete figures this aspect. Nevertheless as for the mirroring effects the analysis will highlight two fundamental distorted images that warn about the complex connections between the elite and public views. The governing elite interviews in harmony with the government’s EU agenda reveal a sovereigntist approach complemented with a powerful anti-Brussels rhetoric that regularly tends to feature the extreme-right positions. At the same time among the public benefit based multi-speed European integration is favoured by the relative majority. With a smaller strength sovereigntism and support for HUxit appear in close to equal force. Thus, the government’s sovereigntist and anti-Brussels agenda are not differentiated among the public. The other distorted image evolves around how the elite per se is evaluated by the public. While the populist regime and its EU rhetoric apparently enjoy large support the public does not confide in the elite and thinks that their political performance is particularly low.